Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 0.085149 0.098685 0.114153 0.133238 0.156293 0.183421 0.218016
2025-10-26 0.065797 0.082100 0.102488 0.130207 0.167453 0.216563 0.287556
2025-11-02 0.051262 0.067963 0.090482 0.123762 0.172915 0.244872 0.362173
2025-11-09 0.039973 0.055788 0.078535 0.114714 0.172927 0.266911 0.439112
2025-11-16 0.033501 0.049112 0.073016 0.113914 0.185728 0.314266 0.581982
2025-11-23 0.028349 0.043437 0.067895 0.112682 0.198183 0.367620 0.770331
2025-11-30 0.024706 0.039474 0.064755 0.114238 0.216984 0.443307 1.064127
2025-12-07 0.021647 0.035926 0.061625 0.115163 0.235679 0.530535 1.469472
2025-12-14 0.018629 0.031921 0.056877 0.111745 0.244400 0.601569 1.913208
2025-12-21 0.015468 0.027135 0.049743 0.101512 0.233749 0.617807 2.204053
2025-12-28 0.013843 0.024997 0.047472 0.101636 0.250096 0.726471 3.039316
2026-01-04 0.012710 0.023635 0.046547 0.104785 0.276854 0.892980 4.502849
2026-01-11 0.011533 0.022036 0.044899 0.106019 0.300231 1.076441 6.632281
2026-01-18 0.010495 0.020564 0.043264 0.106935 0.324110 1.293755 9.900596
2026-01-25 0.009405 0.018815 0.040650 0.104416 0.335519 1.473488 13.847021
2026-02-01 0.008322 0.016926 0.037359 0.099013 0.333928 1.590797 17.993810
2026-02-08 0.007686 0.015965 0.036219 0.099990 0.359607 1.915148 28.411947
2026-02-15 0.007096 0.015027 0.034969 0.100294 0.383543 2.280867 45.247692
2026-02-22 0.006657 0.014387 0.034396 0.102794 0.420582 2.836935 80.917026
2026-03-01 0.006238 0.013734 0.033666 0.104569 0.456446 3.490272 148.608234
2026-03-08 0.005736 0.012804 0.031981 0.102292 0.469464 3.969684 241.029191
2026-03-15 0.005100 0.011459 0.028875 0.093647 0.440216 3.910125 286.012599
2026-03-22 0.004793 0.010934 0.028123 0.094227 0.468961 4.697228 563.922993